Ukraine’s War-Time Transport: Resilience Amid Shifting Trade Flows
Originally published in the June 2025 edition of the Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine.
While Ukraine’s transport sector continues to adapt to war-time constraints, recent trends highlight both emerging opportunities and persistent vulnerabilities across modes. From falling grain rail volumes to new maritime connections, the picture is mixed—but far from stagnant.
🚂 Grain Rail Transport Down 30% — A Seasonal Dip or Structural Decline?
Between January and May 2025, Ukrzaliznytsia moved 22.2 million tonnes of cargo to ports, including 12.7 million tonnes of grain. Of that, 11.4 million tonnes were in export traffic (to ports and western border)—down 30% from the same period last year. This steep drop reflects not just lower international demand and stockpiling ahead of harvest, but also ongoing global market disruptions. Whether the downturn persists will depend on both harvest outcomes and logistics capacity in the second half of the year.
Amid this, the Ukrainian government allocated UAH 4.3 billion to support the railway’s wartime operations—restoring infrastructure, securing transport routes, and modernizing rolling stock. One notable deal: Ukrzaliznytsia signed a $110 million contract with Kryukiv Railway Car Building Works for 95 new passenger railcars, part of a wider state-backed fleet renewal strategy.
⚓ Port Security Up, but Idle Ships Tell a Cautionary Tale
There’s a rare bright spot in the maritime sector: thanks to sustained investment in air defense and protective infrastructure, the security level of Ukrainian Black Sea ports jumped from 50% to 95%, according to the Odesa Regional Military Administration. This is a critical achievement. Restored security could restore international shipping confidence—if trade flows resume.
Yet, in practice, grain exports through ports have slowed, leading to increased ship idle time and surplus tonnage. Market players cite a lack of forward contracts and weak global grain prices. While costly for shipowners, this pause may allow Ukrainian exporters to negotiate better freight terms in a softened market.
Positive developments are still unfolding. COSCO Shipping Europe launched a new Black Sea Feeder Service from Chornomorsk to Kumport (Turkey), while Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi seaport and APM Terminals Poti plan a ferry line along the Trans-Caspian corridor. These are clear signals: Ukraine is not just holding ground—it’s reentering global maritime networks.
🚌 Roads: New Agreements, Old Bottlenecks
On the road front, several bilateral breakthroughs are worth noting:
Ukraine and Romania agreed to exchange 2,000 single-use bus permits for irregular (non-scheduled) passenger services—timely, given the seasonal surge in demand.
Ukraine and Norway extended their freight liberalization agreement through end-2025, allowing trucks meeting Euro-5+ standards to operate without permits.
The eQueue system for online truck and bus registration also marked a milestone: over 2 million border crossingsrecorded since launch. Recently revived with EU funding via IOM Ukraine (after USAID support was paused), the system plans to expand to passenger cars and add priority passage features—a needed relief for both drivers and customs officers.
Yet, not all news is good. Repairs and pipeline works at Shehyni–Medyka, a critical Poland-Ukraine crossing, reduced freight lanes and eliminated truck waiting zones, causing long delays since late May. This checkpoint had already faced partial lane closures in April–May. Temporary disruptions like these remind us how fragile cross-border flows remain under wartime strain.
As Ukraine fights for its future, transport remains one of the country’s most strategically important lifelines. The challenges are steep—but so are the signs of resilience.
— Iryna Kosse, Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting